Comet 76P - Danger not over yet

Last year, YOWUSA.COM featured a series of articles presenting the possibility of an interaction between Comet 76P and Phobos during the comet's June 5, 2000 flyby of Mars. Since then, several readers have demanded follow-ups, even though Mars is still months away from opposition. But does that mean we're `off the hook' and that the story was nothing more than hot air?  We honestly wish that were the case, but there are nagging tell-tale signs that suggest otherwise. 

Where Things Stand
Our articles discussed the possiblity that an interaction between 76P and Mars or Phobos could result in the creation of an Earth-bound debris field that would pass closely by or even hit Earth in the period of roughly three months after the June 5, 2000 flyby.

Even though NASA can observe Mars and its moons right now, it has neither confirmated nor denied the current whereabouts or even existence of the moon Phobos. They tell us that Phobos and Comet 76P are exactly where they should be, but those assurances are based on sightings that predate Comet 76P's June 5, 2000 flyby of Mars. 

In the meantime, NASA has not reported any post flyby sightings of Phobos or Comet 76P and has evidenced no interest in doing so now, which it can, or in the near future.

Bothersome Signs
Just when I was beginning to think that this whole affair was as Shakepeare coined it, Much Ado About Nothing, something happened that made me think that we're not entirely out of the woods yet.  There have been tell-tale signs that something's up.  

PERSONAL SIGHTING:
In October of last year, I personally witnessed a greenish bright fiery `ball' moving silently across the sky, trailed by a bright orange tail. The entire thing including the tail was a little over the size of a full Moon. It moved from South to North across the entire sky at approximately 8 PM local time here in The Netherlands.

WARNINGS BY RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS:
Then, there was the warning by Russian scientists, published in the Moscow Times last December.  The scientists (including Bagrov), told us there is no real way of issuing a warning more than three days ahead of a possible impact event.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2000/12/16/003.html, (Note: You need to subscribe to the site to view the page.)

VERMONT SIGHTING:
On December 28, 1999 in Vermont, USA, a bright object running across the sky caused many people to call weather services or emergency services. It was reported to have been bright green, from East to West at 630 PM local.
http://rutlandherald.nybor.com/News/AtAGlance/Story/17567.html

AUSTRALIAN SIGHTING:
An unknown object caused several aerial explosions most likely off the Australian East coast in a two hour period around 1030 PM local time on Wednesday December 20th. This event supposedly even set off a few grass fires around the capital, Canberra.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20001226/wl/australia_spacejunk_dc_1

NEW ZEALAND SIGHTING:
On December 29 from Christchurch, New Zealand, residents saw bright lights moving across the sky leaving dust trails behind them. This must be rated as a possible sighting, because it occured in broad daylight during which time the sighting of a meteor is more difficult due to the possibility of Solar glare effects.
http://farshores.topcities.com/farshores/nmeteor2.htm

Up to this point, I was still repeating my Much Ado About Nothing mantra when an YOWUSA.COM recieved an important eye-witness from one of our readers, Jay Fiore on New Year's Day.  The full text of the e-mail message appears below:

Hi All,Happy New Year! What an unexpected treat. While awaiting the ISS to over fly Okinawa, my family and I were treated to an unexpected event. At about 18:31 local (11:31 UTC) a bright green glowing object with a small tail streaked towards the west at approximately 45 degrees above the horizon. It lasted but a few seconds.

I wonder if anyone else saw this? You would probably have to be in our "neck of the woods", the Western Pacific Rim, to see it.

Thanks to Starry Night Pro and CelesTrak (for the updated 2-line orbital data), we were able to see the ISS with the naked eye shortly after the bolide disappeared. It came into view at 18:34 local (11:34 UTC), tracked across the sky, peaked at about 55 degrees, and disappeared at 18:41 local (11:41 UTC). Any of our friends "down under" catch a glimpse? Our skies have just cleared today after two days of rain-what luck!

Clear skies to all!
Jay Fiore
26�19'N  127�46'E
Okinawa, JP

Why Jay's E-Mail Changed My Mind
After recieving Jay's sighting report, I began to see a pattern forming that could no longer be rationalized away as being random chance or just  simple coincidence. 

All but one of these sightings were in the evening. That means the respective locations had just turned away from facing the Sun that day; or they were approaching that point of the day. What that means, is that the objects that  caused these sightings must have been `trailing' Earth as it flew East around the Sun. 

Therefore, the objects  must have come from the West, and approached our planet from its wake, which is the general direction where Venus is right now.  This is noteworthy, because a month after the Comet 76P flyby of Mars on June 5, 2000, Venus orbital data showed a strange `bump' in its orbit early July.

While there is no direct evidence that something happened, there could have been an encounter between 76P, Mars and Phobos that could have resulted in strongly altering the trajectory of the latter and shattering it as well perhaps, into a stream of bits and chunks, the beginning of which we may just be seeing now.

Viewing Mars
For the benefit of the readers who have sent us several requests for an update, Mars is presently visible to astronomers, but the ideal time for ametuers to it will be on June 15, 2001 when it is in oppostion when it will appear to be four times larger than it is now during the month of January. 

The following table was copied from the Mars Watch 2001 web site. 

Mars in 2001

Data from Earth Centred Universe 2.0B. Used with permission.

Those Who Might Know Remain Silent
To those who are following this story, please understand that YOWUSA.COM is simply nothing more than a few citizen journalists who volunteer their time whenever possible.  Please understand that we do not have the resources to answer this question conclusively, even though we wish we could.

If something is headed this way, we will learn about it when you learn about it, which if the Russians scientists are right will be about 3 days before an impact event - we hope. 

With this in mind, we once again appeal to the ones 'in the know' to disclose whatever information or observations they possess to the public.

Our intention is not to seek sensation. Rather, we geniuenly hope that this subject which up till now has been carefully avoided or dismissed by official agencies, can be laid to rest once and for all.